Wednesday, May 6, 2009

D-Lee - #3 Hitter?

So what do you all think of our very own Derrek Lee? Personally, I think he is ULTRA over-rated, that is if anyone thinks all that much of him these days other than Lou Piniella. But if you read the comments from The Lou blog, you already know this. Actually, if you have ever talked to me about D-Lee, you already know it too.

While he may be finally out of his DP funk from 2008, he is still just simply NOT clutch and that is a TREMENDOUS flaw for your #3 hitter. Here's a Cubs team that led the NL in runs scored last year, but the #3 hitter in a career high number of plate appearances couldn't manage even 100 RBIs. How is that possible? I'll tell you how...NO POWER! D-Lee finished with a very respectable .291 BA, but managed only 20 HRs in a hitter friendly home ball park. Hmmm. To me, BA is the most overrated stat in baseball. It is not about how many hits you get in a game; its how many runs you score. To that end, the #3, 4, and 5 hitters have the biggest responsibility to drive in those runs. Sometimes you just need a single, but a lot of times you need extra bases so while he hit a respectable .308 with RISP, he only drove in 63 runs in over 180 plate appearances. Now, I won't compare him to Albert Pujols because, as much as it pains me to say it, he's just the best ball player in the game right now although he plays for the mortal enemy (sorry White Sox, I know the Cubs are your mortal enemy, but we just really aren't that concerned about a team we play 6 times a year) Cardinals. But let's compare him to Ryan Howard, shall we? Hey, it's my blog! Ryan Howard batted a smooth .320 with RISP and drove in 90 runs in 223 PAs. For all you anti-math guys out there, that's 27 more RBIs in just 43 more PAs. Further examination shows D-Lee had only 1 HR with RISP while Howard had 12. As a matter of fact, out of D-Lee's pathetic 20 HRs in 2008, only 5 of them were NOT solo while Howard hit 26 out of his 48 HRs with runners on base.

So while Lee hit for a .291 BA, he only drove in 90 RBIs while Howard "only" hit .251 but drove in 146 RBIs. How do you like BA now for an offensive stat?

Just for Rob...since you couldn't lay off protecting your boy D-Lee in my The Lou blog, here's another stat for you...while D-Lee is "average to slightly above average in rbi opportunties", he's tied for the team lead (Ramirez has been hurt and Bradley has been AWFUL) in RBIs with the likes of little Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot (my personal favorite Cub), and Mr. April (a.k.a. Kosuke Fukudome). Even with Fukudome's inflated salary ($11.5 million), if you add all of them together (Theriot - $500K, Fontenot - $430K), they still don't surpass D-Lee's ($13 million).

So, is it D-Lee's fault he just isn't that good? A little, right? But what about the knucklehead that has implanted him in the #3 or #4 spot in the lineup since he's been here? Ya, you know who I'm talking about...The Lou! How long can you live off a career year that happened 4 years ago? That's ancient history at this point, isn't it?

My thanks to the Cot's Baseball Contracts blog for all the salary data - http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html.

4 comments:

  1. The White Sox really could care less about the Cubs right now. That "rivalry" is really a thing of the past. The White Sox are more concerned with division rivals such as the Tigers and Twins, even more so this year considering how winnable the division is. I know you'd like to think White Sox fans are concerned about the Cubs, but that is simply not the case. With that said, the Cubs shouldn't be worried about the White Sox.

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  2. Well, I do appreciate your response. However, i have several White Sox fan friends and I totally disagree that they don't care more about the Cubs than they do about the Sox. They first check the Cubs score to see if they lost before even checking the Sox. This is especially the case since 2005 as it just doesn't matter if the Sox ever win again just as long as the Cubs don't win.

    Let's look at it in simple terms - attendance; i.e. how many people cared enough to come out to The Cell to watch them play the Cubs. They played the Cubs at home 3 times last season and the attendance at those three games ranked #2, #5, and #6. While the 9/30 game against the Twins was #1, there isn't another division rival game until #12 against Cleveland. In 2007, the Cubs games at The Cell were #1, #2, and #3 in attendance while the first division rival game was #10. How far back do you want to go? Even in 2005, the Cubs games were #1, #5, and #9.

    There is so much more hype surrounding the cross-town classic games too. The Sox marketing department LOVES the extra attention in their third class citizen mentality. Look at some of Ozzie's interviews and comments about the Cubs every single year.

    The Sox and their fans let the Cubs ride in the back of their minds WAY too much. Maybe it will change this year, but I seriously doubt it.

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  3. Lee's Neck - Mouthpiecesports.com

    Today's post at Mouthpiece is about Derrek's neck. I'm not familiar with his injury and/or what happens when you have a herniated disc.

    http://www.mouthpiecesports.com/cubsblog/2009/05/07/derreks-pain-neck-shoulder-arm/

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  4. Rob - thanks for posting. Having herniated a disc in my lower back TWICE (same disc both times) in 2008, I am all too aware of the pain caused by such a problem. Mine was in the lower spine (L5/S1) and immobilized me (primarily right leg) for over a week each time. Horrible - I wouldn't wish that pain on anyone; not even your boy D-Lee.

    I can't imagine D-Lee not going on the DL with such an injury but I can appreciate his courage in trying to work through it. However, is this the Brett Favre thing from the end of last season where he played horribly through a torn bicep tendon only to play horribly (but he did keep his "iron man" streak going, didn't he?) and knock his own team out of the playoffs? If this is part of the reason for his slow start, then let's put D-Lee on the DL, let him rest and give Micah a REAL chance to play 1B full-time during that span and see what he's got. If Micah doesn't take advantage at this point, then he'll have nobody to blame but himself.

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